Conflict and crime

Although Mozambique’s civil war ended in 1992, violence flared again in 2013 when the opposition RENAMO party renewed its insurgency against the FRELIMO government. Both sides stand accused of war crimes in a conflict whose death toll analysts estimate at near 1 million (France24, 2019). A peace agreed in August 2019 remains tentative as a small number of RENAMO rebels have vowed not to lay down their weapons (Mail & Guardian, 2019).

Embora a guerra civil de Moçambique tenha terminado em 1992, a violência voltou a explodir em 2013, quando o partido da oposição, RENAMO, renovou sua insurgência contra o governo da FRELIMO. Ambos os lados são acusados de crimes de guerra em um conflito cujos analistas do número de mortos estimam em cerca de 1 milhão (France24, 2019). Uma paz acordada em Agosto de 2019 permanece provisória, pois um pequeno número de rebeldes da RENAMO prometeu não depor suas armas (Mail & Guardian, 2019).

Though an economic magnet, South Africa is still grappling with serious problems of crime and violence. Both Statistics South Africa and the government’s 20-year review (Presidency of the Republic of South Africa, 2015) reveal significant progress, but both also confirm continued disturbingly high levels of violence.

Over the past two decades, the threat posed by violent extremist groups that espouse fundamentalist religious narratives has grown substantially across Africa (Hallowanger, 2014). The colonial era and the undemocratic rule that characterized many post-independence governments generated anti-Western and jihadist movements across the Middle East and the wider Islamic world (Moore, 2016). These movements advocate conservative religious rule as a cure for modern societies’ social ills.

In June 2015, militants from the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) raided a beach hotel in Sousse, Tunisia, killing 38 people (CNN, 2015a). Four months later, ISIL claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian airliner, with 224 fatalities, although the official cause remains undetermined (CNN, 2015b). Similarly, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) killed 18 people on the beaches of Grand Bassam in Côte d'Ivoire in March 2016, and days later attacked an oil and gas facility in southern Algeria (Al Jazeera, 2016).

Au Niger, la situation sécuritaire ces deux dernières années est prise en tenailles par le groupe djihadiste et terroriste Boko Haram installé à ses frontières. A plus de la moitié, les Nigériens se sentent exposés au risque des actions terroristes. En effet, selon le plus récent sondage d’Afrobaromètre, 59% des citoyens justifient l’exposition à une telle menace par la faible présence de l’état dans certaines parties du territoire.

La trajectoire de Madagascar sur longue période se caractérise par des crises sociopolitiques récurrentes (en 1972, 1991, 2001 et 2009) qui ont à chaque fois entraîné la chute du pouvoir en place et ont interrompu les dynamiques économiques positives amorcées (Razafindrakoto et alii, 2013). La dernière crise qui a débuté à la fin de 2008, et dont l'issue reste à ce jour incertaine malgré l'organisation des élections présidentielles et législatives au dernier trimestre 2013, a entrainé des conséquences dramatiques dans les domaines économiques et sociaux.

In the December 2012 Afrobarometer survey, Malians highlighted the primary causes of the serious sociopolitical crisis that their country was going through, as lack of patriotism on the part of the leaders and weakness of the State. At that time, most Malians had lost trust in the political class and in politicians. One year later (December 2013), however, a follow-up Afrobarometer survey revealed that foreign terrorists and corruption are rather the two primary causes of the Northern conflict and occupation.

Kenya has seen a dramatic rise in violent extremism: Between 1970 and 2007, the country experienced 190 terrorist attacks, an average of five per year; since 2008, the average has escalated to 47 attacks a year. The overwhelming majority of these incidents have been attributed to Al-Shabaab. Originating in Somalia in 2005, the group has since regionalized its operations and established an active presence in Kenya, where it has successfully recruited and radicalized Kenyan nationals and carried out numerous attacks on a variety of local targets (Botha, 2014).

Policy Paper No. 20 is being revised. The revised paper will be available soon.

Widespread violence and crime made for a tense build-up to Nigeria’s recent elections, with large swaths of the country effectively under the control of terrorists and frequent headlines reporting armed robberies and kidnappings.

Change has been rapid and remarkable: Within the span of a few months, virtually all territories (and hundreds of captives) have been liberated from extremist groups, and in March and April 2015, elections conducted with minimal disruption turned the incumbent party out of office after 16 years.

Namibians express increasing levels of support for women in political leadership, but Namibian women continue to trail men slightly in their interest in public affairs and participation in civic action, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey.