Abstract
Despite growing concerns about political instability, research on insecurity and institutional trust has overwhelmingly focused on democracies, leaving authoritarian and conflict-affected countries largely unexplored.
This study examines how insecurity influences institutional trust in Mali, a fragile and conflict-affected country. Using data from Afrobarometer rounds 8 and 9, combined with secondary data on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, we construct indices of subjective and objective insecurity and estimate multiple linear models including quadratic terms to assess relationships before and after the coups of August 2020 and May 2021.
Our results reveal power-contingent, non-linear dynamics. Under civilian rule, objective insecurity, seen as observed violence, traces a U-shaped curve. However, under the military regime, the curve turns bell-shaped.
Conversely, subjective insecurity, mildly corrosive before the coups, instead becomes U-shaped afterward, meaning only extreme perceived danger activates the rally-around the-flag effect. While these patterns highlight potential differences between regime types, they are drawn from two time points in a single country and should be interpreted with caution.