- Support for multiparty competition has increased by 23 percentage points over two decades, from 44% in 2002 to 67% in 2022. o Over the same timeframe, disapproval of one-party governance has risen by 22 points, from 42% to 64%.
- While 43% of Mozambicans think it is better for political power to change hands from time to time, half (51%) deem it acceptable for one party to dominate so long as it wins power in free and fair elections.
- Three-fourths (75%) of citizens say opposition parties should cooperate with the government rather than focus on holding it accountable.
- The share of Mozambicans who say they “feel close to” a political party has dropped from 82% in 2005 to 43% in 2022.
- Trust in the ruling party decreased from 64% in 2002 to 53% in 2022, while trust in opposition parties rose from 24% to 41%. o The trust gap between ruling party and opposition is now 12 percentage points, down massively from a peak of 58 points recorded in 2008.
- A majority (57%) of citizens think elections help to ensure that voters’ views are represented in the National Assembly, but fewer than half (43%) believe that elections are an effective means for voters to remove unrepresentative leaders.
As its bloody and disputed general election in October revealed, Mozambique’s electoral process continues to face significant challenges (Al Jazeera, 2024a, b; Amnesty International, 2024). Since the introduction of multiparty democracy in 1994, the country’s elections have been marred by violence and allegations of manipulation, including ballot-box stuffing and intimidation of election observers. Foreign and civil society election monitors characterised the previous presidential election, in 2019, as the least fair since 1994 (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024).
Municipal elections in 2023 were highly contentious as well. The National Election Commission declared the ruling Frelimo party the winner in 64 of 65 districts, including in traditional strongholds of the opposition Renamo party. Independent observers reported Renamo victories in several municipalities, including Maputo. These discrepancies sparked protests, which were met with a brutal police crackdown, resulting in dozens of arrests and at least four deaths (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024; Nhamirre, 2023). Renamo appeals to district courts led to 12 rulings to either annul results or call for recounts, but these decisions were overturned by the Frelimo-appointed Constitutional Council (Nhamirre, 2023).
The results of last month’s presidential elections, in which Frelimo presidential candidate Daniel Chapo was declared the winner, have drawn fierce protests amid allegations of fraud. A lawyer for opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane and a spokesperson for the opposition party Podemos were assassinated in Maputo nine days after the election (Al Jazeera, 2024a, b).
Critics say the country’s electoral system, which features both closed-list proportional representation and single-member constituencies (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 2024), has not effectively promoted political stability or inclusion, has failed to prevent the emergence of a de facto one-party system, and has not adequately addressed geographic imbalances in representation, with Frelimo dominating in some regions and Renamo in others, fostering conflict (De Brito, 2003; Onslow, 2016).
Additionally, the large size of electoral constituencies has limited the connection between members of Parliament (MPs) and their constituents, resulting in weak links that the party-list voting system has exacerbated by shifting focus from individual candidates to party leadership (De Brito, 2023). The political environment has been further strained by controversies surrounding the independence of electoral bodies, including issues with the National Election Commission’s appointment process and repeated electoral irregularities (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2024; Nhamirre, 2023).
Despite these challenges, recent Afrobarometer survey findings show that support for multiparty democracy is strong and continuing to grow in Mozambique. At the same time, fewer citizens report feeling close to a political party, and the ruling party’s advantage in popular trust has diminished as trust in opposition parties has increased. A majority of citizens see elections as working well to ensure that MPs reflect the views of voters, though fewer think they are an effective tool for voting out non-performing leaders.
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