AD1025: Ahead of 2026 election, Ugandans affirm support for multiparty democracy

Uganda is scheduled to hold its fifth multiparty election in January 2026. It is now two decades since the country voted in a national referendum to restore political parties. During the preceding 20 years of President Yoweri Museveni’s “movement system” of governance, all political parties were banned and candidates had to campaign as independents (Meldrum, 2005). 

Since 2006, elections have been held every five years. The most recent election, in 2021, was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. In line with a Ministry of Health policy restricting in-person gatherings, the Electoral Commission of Uganda (EC) announced that electoral campaigning would have to be carried out via radio, television, and social media. Opposition parties raised concerns that this would increase the costs of campaigning and limit their reach, creating an environment that favoured the incumbent National Resistance Movement (Kazibwe, 2020). 

The 2021 election was marred by a government-imposed Internet blackout and reports of violence and intimidation. A group of lawyers catalogued more than 500 electoral offences and human-rights violations, including the killing and arbitrary detention of opposition supporters, while a local NGO that observed polling in certain districts said the election was neither free nor fair (Kasozi, 2021; Kolyangha, 2021). The European Parliament (2021) noted that independent “international observers were prohibited from overseeing the election” and that the results “were hard to verify because the (EC) did not follow the prescribed tallying process.” 

The upcoming election is expected to feature Museveni, who has been in power since 1986 and remains eligible to run following constitutional amendments that removed presidential age and term limits (Government of Uganda, 2005, 2017). 

Citizen concerns about the EC persist despite legal and administrative reforms aimed at strengthening electoral integrity. Several changes were introduced in 2015 and 2020, including changes to the EC’s appointment process and campaign financing rules (Freedom House, 2015; ALP East Africa, 2020). However, public confidence in the electoral process remains low. Previous Afrobarometer data show that public scepticism about the role of the EC is rooted in fears about the institution’s ability to ensure a level playing field for all political actors (Krönke, 2022). 

This dispatch is based on data from an Afrobarometer’s survey conducted in 2024 in Uganda. 

Analysis reveals that large majorities of Ugandans support foundational democratic principles, including the use of elections to choose leaders, the need for multiple political parties to contest elections, and the rejection of one-party rule. 

But only half of citizens emphasise the importance of a periodic transfer of power between political parties, and almost two-thirds say losing parties should focus on cooperating with the government rather than on holding it accountable.

Among Ugandans who were old enough to vote in the 2021 election, almost three-fourths say they did. Youth were significantly less likely than older generations to say they voted. Only half of respondents believe that the election was free and fair, and half say they feared political intimidation and violence. 

Public trust in the EC has remained a minority position since 2017. As Uganda prepares for the upcoming polls, strengthening electoral institutions and restoring public trust in the EC are critical steps in safeguarding the country’s democratic legitimacy.