African insights 2024: Democracy at risk – the people’s perspective

Foreword: Afrobarometer and African democracy

Executive summary

Africa’s democratic project faces challenging times, overshadowing ruling-party transitions, the ouster of long-sitting presidents, and other democratic advances, and fuelling warnings that democracy is losing ground on the continent.

Afrobarometer has documented the democratic aspirations and experiences of African citizens for the past 25 years. This report, the first in what will be an annual series on high-priority topics, distills findings from data spanning more than a decade, including our latest round of nationally representative surveys in 39 countries. In a nutshell: Africans want more democratic governance than they are getting, and the evidence suggests that nurturing support for democracy will require strengthening integrity in local government and official accountability.

Key findings

Support for democracy

• On average across 39 countries, support for democracy remains robust: Two-thirds (66%) of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%).
• But across 30 countries surveyed consistently over the past decade, support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points, including by 29 points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali.
• Opposition to military rule has weakened by 11 points across 30 countries, most dramatically in Mali and Burkina Faso (by 40 and 36 points, respectively).
• More than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders “abuse power for their own ends.”

• Growing majorities call for government accountability and the rule of law, and support for other democratic norms has held steady over the past decade, including presidential accountability to Parliament, multiparty competition, presidential term limits, and media freedom.
• But support for elections has dropped by 8 percentage points across 30 countries, though a large majority still consider it the best method for choosing their leaders.

Supply of democracy

• Fewer than half (45%) of Africans think their countries are mostly or completely democratic, and only 37% say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries.

• Across 30 countries, both indicators show declines – of 8 and 11 percentage points, respectively – over the past decade.
• Satisfaction with democracy has dropped precipitously in some of Africa’s most high-profile democracies, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), and South Africa (-35 points).
• Other indicators of democratic supply also show at least modest declines, including citizen assessments of the quality of elections and their president’s accountability to Parliament and the courts.

Drivers of democratic attitudes

• Deepening citizen dissatisfaction with how democracy is performing is strongly associated with perceived declines in both socioeconomic and political performance.
• But support for democracy as a system of government is more resilient to economic and social deficiencies. Where we see declines in support for democracy, they are most closely linked to adverse changes in political performance, such as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law.

Given the importance of citizen support to the survival of a democratic project, our findings underscore the centrality of restoring faith in African governments’ ability to deliver accountable, democratic governance.

Africans’ aspirations for democratic governance

Despite economic, political, and social headwinds, democracy has robust popular support across much of Africa. Two-thirds (66%) of citizens say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and the same proportion oppose military rule. Even larger majorities reject one-man rule (80%) and one-party rule (78%).

Several key indicators of democratic commitment have held steady or even improved over the past decade, including opposition to one-man and one-party rule and support for presidential term limits, multiparty competition, accountability, and rule of law.

But across 30 countries that Afrobarometer has tracked consistently since 2011, other indicators have slipped: support for democracy by 7 percentage points, support for elections by 8 points, and rejection of military rule by 11 points. Preference for democracy dropped a remarkable 29 percentage points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali, 18 points in both Malawi and Tunisia, and 17 points in Burkina Faso.

Supply of democratic governance

While trends in support for democracy offer reasons for both optimism and concern, the real “democratic problem” on the continent is rooted not in a demand-side failure of popular support, but in a supply-side failure by African leaders to deliver.

On average across 39 countries, fewer than half (45%) of respondents describe their countries as “a full democracy” or “a democracy with minor problems,” and only 37% say they are “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way democracy works in their countries.

All of our supply-side indicators show modest but steady declines over the past decade, including satisfaction (-11 percentage points across 30 countries), the perceived quality of elections (-7 points), and the president’s perceived accountability to Parliament (-7 points) and to the courts (-6 points). Satisfaction with democracy shows a remarkable collapse in a number of countries, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), South Africa (-35 points), Ghana (-23 points), and Namibia (-12 points) – all considered democratic stalwarts on the continent.

Global perspectives

In democratic commitment, Africa outpaces Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America. When it comes to democratic satisfaction, however, Africans are considerably more critical than many of their global counterparts.

African ambivalence about the military

While Africans express high levels of trust in their militaries, they don’t want the military to govern their country: Two-thirds (66%) reject this idea.

But that opposition is weakening. And more than half (53%) of Africans are willing to tolerate military intervention in politics if “elected leaders abuse power for their own ends.”

Corruption: A growing hurdle for democracy

Given the corrosive effects of official corruption on popular support for democracy, the news is not good: In the eyes of ordinary Africans, the problem is getting worse.

Quality of elections takes centre stage in 2024

In a year packed with 23 national elections on the continent, the quality and legitimacy of these high-stakes contests will be front and centre. But weakening support for elections is one of the troubling trends in popular commitment to democratic norms and practices.

How would African youth shape their democracy?

Given their dominance in numbers, how might young Africans choose to shape their countries’ governance and policy choices?

Almost two-thirds (64%) of youth prefer democracy over any other kind of government. They join their elders in rejecting dictatorship (80%) and military rule (65%) but are more likely to accept military takeovers if “elected leaders abuse power for their own ends” (56%).

Young Africans are dissatisfied with the way their democracy is working (60%), but they are significantly less likely than older cohorts to engage in change-making activities such as voting and joining others to raise an issue.

Gender gaps still mark democratic participation

Three-fourths (75%) of Africans say women should have the same chance as men of being elected to public office. But more than half (52%) also say women who run for public office are likely to be criticised, called names, or harassed by others in the community. And women still trail men in voting and other forms of political engagement.

Politics or economics: What drives Africans’ support for democracy?

What explains the negative trends in Africans’ key attitudes toward democracy – dwindling satisfaction and, to a lesser extent, declining support?

Our analysis indicates that deepening citizen dissatisfaction with democracy is strongly associated with perceptions of declines in both socioeconomic and political performance.

In contrast, Africans’ preference for democracy is resilient to deterioration in socioeconomic performance. Instead, shifts in popular support are related to changes in political conditions such as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law.

Given the importance of citizens’ support for the survival of a democratic project, it is critical that democracy stakeholders pay attention to the delivery of political goods – notably clean elections, the rule of law, and an effective fight against corruption.

Country case studies

South Africa: Steep decline in democratic support and satisfaction amid rising corruption

Afrobarometer has documented sharp declines in South Africans’ support for democracy (-29 percentage points) and satisfaction with democracy (-35 points) since 2011 amid growing disillusionment with the government’s inability or unwillingness to address corruption.

Mali: Collapse in support for democracy amid long-standing insecurity

In the wake of two military coups, citizen support for democracy declined sharply in Mali, as did rejection of military rule and perceptions that corruption was getting worse.

Kenya: Support for democracy on the rise, but supply is faltering

The Supreme Court’s annulment of the 2017 election due to widespread irregularities may have helped reinvigorate Kenyans’ democratic commitment: Most indicators of support for democracy have seen gains over the past decade, especially since 2017.

But on the supply side, the story is a bit more uncertain.

Zambia and Senegal: A tale of two rebounds?

Zambia’s democratic trajectory has been a lesson in the power of resilience: unwavering support for democracy even as citizen satisfaction dipped, then recovered from a temporary “slide into authoritarianism.”

Could a similar rebound be in store for Senegal?

Zambia: Resilient commitment, rebounding satisfaction

Conclusion: A well of resilience, but not a bottomless one

Most Africans continue to voice strong support for democratic governance even as popular satisfaction with democracy witnesses a steady decline driven by poor socioeconomic and political performance.

But democratic commitment is starting to show some cracks as well, a response to political rather than economic failures: Rising corruption in local government, poor-quality elections, impunity for law breakers, and a lack of presidential accountability all appear to undermine popular support for democracy.

Countering these political failings – by nurturing democracy, strengthening integrity and accountability, curbing impunity, and ensuring the quality of elections – should be a priority for African governments, as well as for regional, pan-African, and international actors committed to strengthening democracy on the continent.