African insights 2026: Beyond borders: Citizen perspectives on a shifting global order

Foreword: Africans embrace integration – and their own agency

Africa’s place in a shifting global order

The modern world cannot function without the cross-border flows of people, goods, services, and ideas. How Africa navigates the complex, intertwined, and rapidly changing dynamics of global markets, geopolitics, and environmental pressures will determine, to a large extent, the fate of its people. 

Afrobarometer Round 10 surveys (2024/2025) contain special modules on trade, migration, international relations, citizen voice, and climate change. This report, the third in an annual series on high-priority topics, examines the views of citizens from 38 African countries on questions of trade liberalisation, the opening of national borders, the desire to emigrate, the influence of foreign powers, Africa’s standing on the global stage, and responsibility for climate action, as well as the forces shaping some of these views. 

Country scorecards illustrate key perspectives on these issues in all surveyed countries.

Openness to trade in the context
of the AfCFTA

Africans increasingly support free trade: Across 38 countries surveyed in 2024/2025, 62% of citizens believe that trade with other countries will benefit their own economy. Majorities in 32 countries endorse free trade.

But there is a general lack of awareness of the flagship project aimed at continental economic integration: Only 13% of Africans have heard of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). If the African Union (AU) and its member states hope to rally public support for their vision of a giant African trading bloc, they will need to ramp up their communication efforts.

Promote trade or protect local producers? | 38 countries | 2024/2025

What explains attitudes toward free trade in Africa?

While scholarship on developed countries consistently indicates that economic hardship is associated with greater opposition to free trade, the reverse is true in Africa: People who report worse personal living conditions are more likely to support liberalising trade.

Personal living conditions and openness to trade | 38 countries | 2024/2025

Perspectives on crossing borders, emigration, and immigration

Despite the AU’s push for an African passport and free movement of people on the continent, the African Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons has received far less official support than the AfCFTA. Afrobarometer explores a series of key questions: Do Africans support cross-border movement? What is driving so many, especially the young, to consider emigration? And how do citizens view those who arrive from other countries?

Free movement or freeze movement?

More than half (56%) of Africans say people in their subregion should be free to move across borders to live and work in other countries. But fully four in 10 (40%) would prefer restricting cross-border movement to protect citizens’ access to jobs and opportunities. Countries vary widely in their support for free movement, from 79% in Uganda to just 30% in Mauritania.

In practice, almost two-thirds (63%) say it is difficult to traverse borders to work or trade.

Allow free cross-border movement of people? | 38 countries | 2024/2025

Emigration: Personal perspectives on leaving home

Many Africans are keen to move: Almost half (45%) say they have thought at least “a little bit” about moving to another country. In fact, they are more likely to contemplate emigration than citizens of the Middle East/North Africa (32%) or Latin America (29%). And interest in leaving is on the rise: The share who have considered it “a lot” has risen by 7 percentage points since Afrobarometer’s Round 7 survey in 2016/2018. Those who are young (32%) and highly educated (31%) are especially likely to be giving it “a lot” of thought. 

Most potential emigrants are motivated by economic concerns: Half (50%) say they would go in search of work, and another 29% to escape economic hardship. As for preferred destinations, Europe (32%) and North America (28%) top the list, but many would stay in their subregion (17%) or elsewhere in Africa (5%). 

Considered emigration “a lot” | by socio-demographic group | 38 countries | 2024/2025

Immigration: Put out the welcome mat or shut the door?

Africans are culturally open to foreigners: Three-quarters (77%) say they would like or wouldn’t mind having immigrants as neighbours, while two-thirds (68%) feel the same about refugees. 

But they are concerned about economic competition. Respondents are split on whether allowing foreigners to live and work in their country is economically beneficial (45%) or harmful (44%). And as a policy matter, there is strong opposition to immigration: Half (49%) want to see fewer job seekers allowed in, and 15% want to see none at all.

Admit more or fewer job seekers? | 38 countries | 2024/2025

What explains attitudes toward free movement and open borders?

Our analyses show that unlike their counterparts in the West, African societies with higher levels of education, skilled labour, wealth, and development are less – not more – likely to welcome foreigners. 

While open borders may sound good on paper, for many Africans, they are still too risky to be put into practice. Building public support for deeper economic integration will require demonstrating that free movement can deliver tangible benefits – jobs, opportunity, and shared prosperity – rather than heightened competition for scarce resources.

Drivers of attitudes toward foreigners | 38 countries | 2024/2025

The figure summarises the relationships between a range of economic, structural, and media variables and three key indicators of attitudes toward foreigners: perceptions of the economic impact of immigrants, support for admitting job seekers, and support for admitting refugees. Larger Pearson’s correlation coefficients, represented by longer bars, indicate stronger associations.

Africa vis-à-vis the rest of the world

As great powers jockey for influence across the continent, how do Africans view their country’s relationships with them? A substantial majority (62%) see China’s influence on their country as “somewhat positive” or “very positive,” compared to about half for the United States (52%) and the European Union (50%). Fewer welcome the influence of their former colonisers (41%), India (39%), and Russia (36%). 

Assessments of China have held steady over the past five years, while the United States has lost some standing and Russia struggles to improve its reputation. 

But importantly, we find that Africans don’t view these relationships as zero-sum contests: Attitudes toward these external powers are often strongly correlated. It seems that, in a multipolar world, Africans are looking to benefit from multiple partnerships at the same time. 

The desire not to choose sides also shows up in a widespread preference for remaining neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war (72% among those who have heard of the conflict).

Economic and political influence of major powers | 38 countries* | 2024/2025

*The question about the former colonial power was not asked in Liberia.

Citizen voice: The region, the continent, and the globe

Africans broadly see their continental and regional bodies in a favourable light: Majorities regard both the AU (55%) and their regional economic community (REC) (56%) as having a positive economic and political influence on their country (vs. only 13% and 15% negative, respectively). More than half also say that their country’s needs and interests are adequately recognised by the AU (56%) and the REC (54%). 

But when it comes to a push toward full integration, East Africa offers a note of caution: Citizens are supportive of cross-border movement of goods, services, and labour, but views are mixed on the establishment of a single currency, and a majority oppose full political union.

Crucially, most Africans (71%) think that “African countries should be given greater influence in the decision making of international bodies like the United Nations” (UN), giving popular impetus to the AU’s campaign to give African states two permanent seats on the UN Security Council.

African countries should have greater global voice | 38 countries | 2024/2025

Africa and the global challenge
of climate change

Climate change is a quintessential global challenge at the intersection of international cooperation, social justice, and Africa’s developmental trajectory.

Among the 43% of Africans who are climate-change-literate (i.e. they have heard of climate change and understand that human activity is a cause), eight in 10 (80%) say climate change is making life in their country worse. 

Its impacts are felt widely: Half of all respondents report that droughts (51%) and crop failures (51%) have become more severe in their area over the past decade. And about six in 10 Africans report making at least one significant adjustment to daily life in response to changing weather patterns, from altering water sources to changing what they plant and eat, including 19% who say they or a family member had to relocate.

Africans increasingly want action, both from their government and from wealthy or developed nations. In fact, the proportion who say rich nations bear the main responsibility for limiting climate change has risen by 14 percentage points since 2021/2023.

Citizens also back measures aimed at mitigating climate change, such as investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and renewable energy, though policies that threaten to raise household costs are less popular. 

In sum, Africans support a just transition to a more sustainable world, but fear having to bear the transition costs for a crisis they did little to create.

Rich/Developed countries have primary responsibility for limiting climate change | respondents who are aware of climate change | 35 countries | 2021-2025

Conclusion

These findings paint a nuanced picture of an Africa that is increasingly assertive and eager to become a key player on the global stage. While citizen voices reflect a multitude of perspectives and preferences, consensus is forming around certain core issues, including trade liberalisation, strategic engagement with multiple foreign powers, a greater continental say in global affairs, and the need for climate justice. Other issues, notably the question of immigration, are less clear-cut, as most Africans support freedom of movement in theory but want to limit the number of foreigners admitted into their country in practice. 

Nevertheless, Afrobarometer data show that leaders who desire greater integration within the continent and with the rest of the world have a clear mandate to look beyond their borders to secure their country’s future in a rapidly changing world.