Afrobarometer Briefing Paper No. 102 
 
 
PROTEST AND POLITICAL PAfrobaromARTICIPeAter BrTIONief INin SOUTg PapeHr   
AFRICA: TIME TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS OF  
PROTESTERS  March 2012 
  
 by Jerry Lavery 
 
May 2012 
 
 
 
 
 
Background 
On March 7, 2012 tens of thousands of demonstrators in 32 towns and cities across South Africa 
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marched in protest over new tolls on roads. From the rolling mass action o to tfhe  the 1980s
service delivery demonstrations of the 1990s and 2000s, South African citizens have regularly 
participated in mass protests to impact public opinion and influence policymakers on political, 
3
economic, or social matters. Some scholars suggest that political protests have visibly increased in 
4
frequency and intensity in South Africa in recent years, yet little work has systematically examined 
trends in protest over time. Moreover, despite the regularity with which South Africans demonstrate, 
we know little about South African protestors. This briefing paper begins with an assessment of trends 
in protest participation over the last decade in South Africa before providing insights into protestors 
demographic characteristics, perceptions of government accessibility, and political behavior.  
 
The Survey  
During Round 5, Afrobarometer surveys will be conducted in up to 35 countries in Africa, using a 
common survey instrument and methodology. The findings reported here draw from a recent survey 
in South Africa conducted October and November 2011. This is the sixth Afrobarometer survey 
conducted in South Africa (others were conducted in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008). The survey 
was based on a nationally representative random sample of 2400 adult South Africans drawn from all 
nine provinces of the country. The findings reported here have a margin of sampling error of +/- 2 
5
percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted by Citizens Surveys, Ltd., with 
technical support from the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa). 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
1
³South Africans march in mass protest, BB Cat  Netowsll r, 7 Maorchad 2012s´ , 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17283803 
2
Doreen Atkinson, 2007, ³Taking to the streets: has developmental local governance failed in South Africa?´ in 
Sakhela Buhlungu, John Daniel, Roger Southall, and Jessica Lutchman (eds.), State of the Nation: South Africa 
2007 (Cape Town: HSRC Press): 53. 
3
A recent Idasa study tracking South African protests from January 2009 to May 2010 determined that most 
protests are politically motivated (51%), followed by economic protests (39%) and social protests (13%): 
http://www.idasa.org/media/uploads/outputs/files/Summary%20of%20Round%20table%20discussion.pdf 
4
Carl Death, 2010, ³Troubles at the Top: Southro teAfsrtsica ann dP the 2003 Johannesb, uArfrgica Sun mmit
Affairs 109(437): 555.  
5
 The margin of error decreases as the sample size increases. All analyses of protestor characteristics are on a 
small sub-sample. But, all differences highlighted herein are statistically significant at a 95 percent confidence 
level (or higher) unless otherwise noted.  
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· In 2011, when asked: Please tell me whether you, personally, have attended a demonstration or 
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protest march during the  paonlsty 11% yea ofr Sou?th Africans said that they had done so. Well 
over half (58%) reported that they had not and in fac t would never do this.  
 
· While not shown in Figure 1, a substantial percentage of the population states that they would 
have attended a protest given the opportunity: 30% in 2000, 24% in 2002, 29% in 2006, 25% in 
2008, and 29% in 2011.  
 
· As demonstrated in Figure 1 above, when viewed over time, fewer people in more recent rounds 
say they have protested and more South Africans say they would never protest. A quarter (25%) 
of South Africans stated that they had attended a protest in 2006 compared to 19% in 2008 and 
11% in 2011. Only 44% of South Africans stated they would never protest in 2006 compared to 
58% in 2011. 
 
· In 2011, fewer South Africans reported having attended a protest and more South Africans 
reported never being willing to attend a protest than at any other period over the last decade. 
Perhaps the violent and destructive nature of many protests along with increasingly aggressive 
7
police and security responses has contributed to this trend. It is reasonable to assume that many 
South Africans feared becoming victims of violence at demonstrations and consequently chose 
not to attend protests in 2011.  
 
                                                 
6
 Rounds 1 ± 5 of the Afrobarometer ask the following: ³Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as 
citizens. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally, have done any of these things during the past 
year. If not, would you do this if you had the chance? with Attended a demonstration or protest march as one 
of the selected actions. ³Yes answer choices include: ³o³nocefte onr,  twsevice.er al ³Noti maness,w er 
choices include: would if had the chance, and would never do this, and   ³don¶t know was also recorded.     
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In his 2010 memo ³Understanding active citizenship in the light of protest, Theo Chiviru describes a series of 
dialogues focused on how citizen agency has contributed to the depending of democracy in South Africa. Idasa 
examines protests in South Africa over a 17 month period (Jan. 2009 to 31 May 2010) and Chiviru notes ³it was 
disturbing to see how violent and destructive the protests were and the aggressive response of police and 
security forcesit became apparent in the follow up discussions that the±s e protests are not necessarily bad 
what is of concern is the violent nature of these pro catestn be sac.ce sTsedhe  hercoe: mplete memo
http://www.idasa.org/media/uploads/outputs/files/Summary%20of%20Round%20table%20discussion.pdf 
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As demonstrated by Figure 2 above, Whites (75%) and Coloureds (66%) are more likely to say they 
would never attend a demonstration or protest than Blacks/Africans (54%). In addition, Blacks (13%) 
reported much higher rates of attending a demonstration or protest march over the past year than their 
White (1%) or Coloured (8%) counterparts. 
 
 
 
Figure 3 demonstrates variation in levels of protest across provinces. Western Cape (73%), Kwazulu 
Natal (72%), and Eastern Cape (70%) had significantly more respondents who said they would never 
attend a demonstration or protest compared to Gauteng (44%), Limpopo (44%) and North West 
(48%). Limpopo (19%), Free State (16%) and Northern Cape (13%) had the highest percentage of 
respondents who reported that they had attended a protest in the past year while Eastern Cape (7%), 
8
Mpumalanga (8%), Gauteng (9%), and North West (9%) had the lowest. 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
8
Please see table 2 in the aforementioned Idasa memo Understanding active citizenship in the light of protest 
for a breakdown of protests by province from 1 Jan. 2009 to 31 May 2010.  
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9
As seen in Figure 4, the relationship between education and propensity to protest is complex. South 
Africans who have attended some university schooling, but not completed university, have the highest 
likelihood of having protested in the past year (21%).  
 
 
 
A poverty score was created for each respondent based on how often they reported going without 
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food, clean water, or medical treatment during the past year. There is a strong correlation between 
these poverty scores and participation in protests: poorer people are more likely to have protested. 
                                                 
9
 In South Africa, unlike many other African nations, nearly all people attend at least some secondary school. 
Only 5 of the 2,400 respondents had no more than primary education and were consequently dropped from the 
analysis.  
10
 Respondents were asked how often they went without enough food, clean water, or medical treatment in the 
past year. The response categories included, ³never (0), ³just once or twice (1), ³several times (2), many 
times (3), and ³often (4). To create the index score, responses to the three questions were summed and divided 
by three. Respondents who scored an average of less than 1 were categorized as lowest poverty; those who 
scored an average of 1 and less than 2 were categorized as low poverty; those who scored an average of 2 and 
less than 3 were categorized as medium poverty; and those wnhdo less sco thanred 4 w anere  average of 3 a
categorized as high poverty. No one had an average score as h  igh as 4 (highest poverty).
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Figure 5 shows that 10% of South Africans in the lower poverty groups protested during the past year, 
compared to 24% of those in the highest group. 
 
Additional analyses (not shown) demonstrate that having protested in the past year is not associated 
with age, sex, or residential location (urban/rural).  
 
Perceptions of Government Accessibility 
 
 
 
As shown in Figure 6, in comparison to people who did not protest, people who protested more often 
reported feeling that MPs listen to them. Among people who protested, 33% said that MPs listen to 
them often or always. In contrast, among people who did not protest, only 19% said that MPs listen to 
them often or always. At the other end of the spectrum, 31% of people who protested felt that MPs 
never listen to them, compared to 43% of people who did not protest. 
 
 
 
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Figure 7 shows the same trend for Local Government Councilors. People who protested within the 
past year were more likely to report that their local government councilors listen to them often or 
always and less likely to say that their local government councilors never listen to them. From these 
data we cannot determine why this relationship exists. It could be that people who protest feel their 
voices are heard because they protest. Alternatively, it could be that people who perceive that it is 
worthwhile to express their opinions are both more likely to protest and more likely to think that 
government officials listen to them.  
 
Political Behavior of Protesters/Non-Protesters 
 
 
 
Of those who protested, 56% contacted a government department, 31% refused to pay government 
tax, and 31% reported using violence for a political cause. Of those who did not protest, 11% 
contacted a government department, 2% refused to pay government tax, and 1% reported using 
violence for a political cause. Generally, in comparison to people who did not protest in the past year, 
people who protested were more likely to have used additional means to make their voices heard. One 
possible explanation for this association is that some people have cause for deeper grievances and 
therefore are more likely to need to use all available means to make their voices heard.    
 
Only 75 respondents reported that they had used violence for a political cause in the past year. Of 
those respondents, 61 reported that they also attended a protest during the past year. Additional 
analyses (not shown) indicated that protestors who used violence are generally poorer than protestors 
who did not use violence. Approximately 12 percent of people who protested and did not use violence 
experience medium to high poverty. Of the people who reported that they protested and used violence 
for a political cause in the past year approximately 30 percent experience medium to high poverty. 
There is no mean age difference between protestors who use and those who do not use violence. Some 
provinces have higher rates of protestors who reported using violence for a political cause. Protestors 
in Kwazulu Natal had the highest likelihood of reporting that they had used violence.   
 
Conclusion 
From 2000 to 2011, South Africans have become more likely to say they would never protest. Over 
the same time period, there was a decline in the percent of South Africans who reported that they have 
attended a protest in the past year. Race, province, and poverty level are powerful predictors of having 
protested in the past year. In comparison to people who did not protest in the previous year, people 
who protested were more likely to report that their MPs and local government councilors listen to 
them. Protesters were also more likely to have used other means² contacting a government 
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department, refusing to pay a government tax, or using violence for a political cause² to make their 
voices heard.  
 
Prepared by Jerry Lavery, doctoral student, Michigan State University. He can be reached at 

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  for questions or comments.  
The Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 20 African 
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), the 
Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa), the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) at the 
University of Nairobi, and the Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in 
Benin. We gratefully acknowledge generous core support from the Canadian International 
Development Agency (CIDA), the UK Department for International Development (DfID), the Mo 
Ibrahim Foundation, the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), and the United 
States Agency for International Development (USAID) for Afrobarometer Round 5 research, 
capacity building, and outreach activities. Idasa is the Afrobarometer partner in South Africa - for 
more information on Afrobarometer work in South Africa please contact Anyway Chingwete, AB 
Project Manager, 
 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
  or visit: www.afrobarometer.org.